INDIA'S PROSPECT OF A TWO FRONT WAR 🇵🇰🇮🇳🇨🇳

China-Pakistan Conundrum

As the drumbeats of India's prospect of a two front war with its Western neighbour Pakistan and with its Eastern neighbour China grew louder, after the violent clashes with the People's Liberation Army and following the deaths of 20 Indian soldiers in Galwan Valley, let us take a Cursory Glance at the likelihood of a future war scenario with both of its neighbours. 

Indian Army Chief General Manoj Mukund Naravane in an interview admitted that there is a threat of possible collusion between China and Pakistan against India which could lead to a two front war.

On the other hand, some political class in general and supporters of some strategic community felt that a two front war threat was over hyped by the Military to press for additional resources and funds. They underscored that historically , China had never intervened in any Indo-Pak wars. As a result, mostly the strategic thinking was confined to Pakistan and the security issues emanating from there.

 

Border row with Pakistan

Pakistan has been India's oldest foe since the border row issue has always been a  bone of contention between both the states and the infiltration of militants from Pakistan Occupied Kashmir to Jammu and Kashmir and wreaking terror crimes there. Limitless ceasefire violations along the Line of Control from the Pakistan military has also widened the cracks in the bilateral relations between both the states. According to some strategic planning community, it is unlikely that Pakistan would initiate a large scale confict to capture significant chunks of territory possibly Kashmir, because it would lead to a full blown war between the two nuclear  armed states and it would be extremely unaffordable for Pakistan keeping in mind of its ailing economy and also of its internal disturbances ( as it would be like to punch above one' weight for Pakistan). But Pakistan wouldn't miss the opportunity if there is a contingency when both PLA and Indian Army soldiers are confronting each other in the Himalayan borders, to scale up its proxy war against India by infiltrating its non state actors to it. ( as at that time China would be India's centre of attention and it would be cheaper for Pakistan's economy than to officially engage in a war). Now let's bring Pakistan's all weather friend China into the picture, Sino-Pakistan friendship has far serious implications on India today than ever before. The People's Republic of China has always looked at Pakistan as a counter to India's influence in South Asia. Over the years, the ties between China and Pakistan have strengthened and there is a great deal of alignment in their strategic thinking. Military cooperation is growing, with China accounting for 73% of the total arms imports of Pakistan ( between 2015-2019) and also for its increasing military manoeuvres like the Shaheen 9 between the Pakistan Air Force and PLA Air Force. So, it would be prudent for India to be ready for a two front war threat. In preparing for this, the Indian Military needs to analyse how this threat could manifest itself into reality and the type of capabilities that should be built up to counter this two front threat.

Border row with China 

The undemarcated Line of Actual Control and China's expansionist policy has always been a source of stand off between both the armies. The recent Violent Galwan clashes in Ladakh resulted from the disputed border and various rounds of talks in various capacities like ministerial level and corps commander ranked officers of the Indian Army and the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) were being held to ease off the tension in the border. In a two front war scenerio, the larger challenge for India's military would come if the hostilities break out along the eastern border with China, because China has more advanced military equipment and technology than Pakistan like advanced unmanned attacking as well surveillance drones, advanced aircrafts etc. But one should keep in mind that India has a mountainous border with China , and India has an upper hand in mountain warfare than China, since indian military is already deployed in Siachen ( highest battlefield in the world). But unlike Pakistan, China also possess cyber security threat to India. So, India should also prepare itself for this front and should engage with countries which have an experience in cyber warfare like USA, Israel etc. The two front conflict presents the indian military with two dilemmas -- of resources and strategy. Ashley J. Tellis, in his article, " Troubles, They Come in Battalions" estimates that about 60 combat sqadrones are needed to deal with a serious two front threat. This is double the number of squadrons currently with the Indian Air Force ( IAF). India needs to acquire resources for the armed forces according to the economic situation of the country. It can also take some military equipment from USA, Israel or Russia on lease in situations of dire need. A well prepared strategy needs to be formulated with close interaction of the military officials with the political leaders. Any strategy that is prepared without a political support and guidance will not stand the test when it is actually to be executed.

Concluding Remarks

In a two front war challenge, Diplomacy has a crucial role to play. To begin with, New Delhi would need to improve relations with its neighbours so as not to be caught in an unfriendly neighbourhood given Beijing and Islamabad will attempt to contain and constrain India in the South Asian region. The government's current engagement of key powers in West Asia, including Iran should be further strengthened in order to ensure energy security, increase maritime cooperation and enhance goodwill in the extended neighbourhood. New Delhi also needs to ensure that it's relationship with Moscow is not sacrificed in favour of India-US relations as Moscow could play a key role in defusing the severity of a regional gang up against India. Maritime strategy of the QUAD grouping and manoeuvres among its members in the Indo-Pacific and can help ease the Sino-Pakistan pressure on India's land borders. 

It is important to remember that China, a rising and aggressive superpower next door, is the bigger strategic threat for India, with Pakistan just being a pawn to Beijing's anti India game in the South Asia, with regard to larger context of geopolitical scenerio.